December 10, 2023

Report on Syria Civil War by GAU Faculty Member

By gautalk…

Girne American University (GAU) International Relations Department Lecturer – Dr. Can Kasapoğlu has published a report about the final point that has been reached in the third year of Syria’s Civil war and how much Turkey has been affected by it.Picture - 350

A summary of the report created as a result of research by GAU International Relations Lecturer Dr. Can Kasapoğlu is as follows:

“The third year of the Syrian civil war has brought serious threats for Turkey. Ankara’s Syrian origin security environment is faced with two important trends. The first of them emerges as the rise of ISIS threats in sensitive border areas of Turkey and the other, in the form of potential return of PKK activisms threatening the peace process with violent actions. Even worse, Turkey’s analytical capabilities in the said crisis have failed due to the mutual confusion in the Turkish strategy environments. A part of the Turkish strategy environment, shows an obsession like viewing Turkey as the absolute hegemonic power in the Middle East. This cult has evaluated that the heritage of the Ottoman Empire and the “Popularity in the Arab street” will move Turkey to the regional leadership positions by bringing the importance of soft power in the Middle East to the forefront.

On the other hand, the history of the Ottoman Empire as well as the existing regional parameters reveals that the hard power elements and cleverly constructed network of alliances is necessary for the leadership in the Middle East. The second cult in the Turkish strategy environments has an ultra-liberal romantic approach, unlike the first which has the golden age of idealism. Turkey which is deprived of a visionary strategy surrounding, was not able to correctly diagnose the threat of the environment caused by the Syrian Civil war.  Finding a good way out of the current situation will not be easy for the Turkish decision-makers. First, Ankara is required to consolidate by being aware of the Turkish-American relations, the strategic alliance with Washington and NATO membership are the basic elements of Turkey’s geopolitical identity.

Secondly, Ankara must convince its allies for an alternative government after the Esad regime. Finally and most importantly, in a conjuncture where the Sykes-Picot status quo is about to be destroyed in the Middle East, Turkey needs to create a realistic environment strategy by getting rid of the vicious circle in its domestic policy.”

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